April 9, 2020 Coronavirus Update First, and most importantly, we hope this finds you well and healthy and safe. The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in so many ways and presents so many challenges to our everyday lives that it can be easy to lose sight of the human side of things, physical and mental health. We also hope your quarantines are going as well as possible. We continue to work mostly remotely, practicing social distancing, with only a small group of key individuals in our office. So far, we are pleased to report that it’s been business as usual. The past five weeks have seen dramatic declines and increases in global markets. Bull and bear markets are generally defined as a 20% change in value, up or down, respectively. By that definition, we’ve had a bear market and a bull market since March 11th! Daily stock price moves of
March 19, 2020 – Market Update Stocks dropped about 6% Wednesday and are now down about 35% from their all-time high level set only one month ago. The fall has been breathtaking and unprecedented and unsettling, to say the least. Fear over the extent to which COVID-19 and the actions taken by federal and state governments to combat it’s spread will damage the economy has led to wholesale selling of stocks, many types of bonds, and even gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven. It seems apparent that the economy is going into, or is likely already in, a recession. (The average market decline during recessionary periods happens to be, interestingly, 35%.) Unfortunately, the hysteria surrounding this pandemic will likely lead to more scary headlines, more selling, and even lower stock prices. During times like these it is important to try to remain calm, which can admittedly be difficult. Even
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak We don’t know how serious and widespread this coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will ultimately be, but markets are clearly selling off on expectations of slowing economic growth or outright contraction/recession. U.S. stocks have dropped almost 20 percent from their all-time highs reached merely three weeks ago. Some of the most impacted industries have seen companies’ stock prices decline 50 percent or more. Adding to the plunge is the more than 17 percent decline of oil prices resulting from a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia on top of the virus-related decline in demand. You have heard about curtailed travel, cancelled or postponed events, quarantines, and attempts to disinfect. As more of these measures are put in place, global economic activity will certainly contract further. The fact that equity markets entered the COVID-19 scare at or near all-time highs and at full valuations exacerbated the stock market declines.
THE GLENVIEW TRUST COMPANY ELECTS WILLIAM C. CARSTANJEN TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS Appointment fills seat of the late David Jones, Sr. LOUISVILLE, KY (January 22, 2020) – The Glenview Trust Company has elected William C. Carstanjen to its board of directors. He was elected unanimously by the members of the board on December 19, Carstanjen is currently CEO of Churchill Downs Inc. Carstanjen brings professional experience from two international corporations with prominent presence in Louisville, GE and Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI). At CDI, Carstanjen has led the company’s diversification strategy into online wagering on thoroughbred racing via TwinSpires.com and into regional casino gaming as well as helped lead the growth of the Oaks and Kentucky Derby events. “We are pleased to welcome Bill as the newest director to The Glenview Trust Company board,” said board chair J. David Grissom. “Filling the seat left vacant by the death of David Jones,
Stephanie L. Morgan-White passed the Certified Trust & Financial Advisor (CTFA) Exam in October 2019. Prior to sitting for the Exam, Stephanie completed three (3) years of ABA Trust School earning Certificates in Trust at the Advanced, Intermediate and Foundational Levels. She is now serving on the ABA Trust School Advisory Board. Stephanie joined The Glenview Trust Company as a Trust Professional in April 2016 following nineteen (19) years in the private practice of law and two (2) previous years with the Kentucky Court of Appeals.
Glenview’s Market Thoughts… Wednesday morning the two-year to ten-year treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates rise to a level higher than longer-term ones. In this case, the two-year treasury yield is a few basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of one percent) higher than the ten-year yield. Taking heed, major stock markets around the world were down over two percent on top of the increased volatility of the past few days. Historically, recessions have occurred, on average, 22 months following a two-ten inversion. Counterintuitively, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12 percent positive return one year after a two to ten inversion, and it’s not until about 18 months after an inversion that the stock market starts to see bear market-like declines. Why has the yield curve inverted and what does it mean? We’ve written before