Coronavirus Market Update

March 19, 2020 – Market Update

Stocks dropped about 6% Wednesday and are now down about 35% from their all-time high level set only one month ago.  The fall has been breathtaking and unprecedented and unsettling, to say the least.  Fear over the extent to which COVID-19 and the actions taken by federal and state governments to combat it’s spread will damage the economy has led to wholesale selling of stocks, many types of bonds, and even gold, traditionally viewed as a safe haven.  It seems apparent that the economy is going into, or is likely already in, a recession.  (The average market decline during recessionary periods happens to be, interestingly, 35%.)

Unfortunately, the hysteria surrounding this pandemic will likely lead to more scary headlines, more selling, and even lower stock prices.  During times like these it is important to try to remain calm, which can admittedly be difficult.  Even those of us who have been in this business a long time and have lived through several market drawdowns and nasty bear markets can grow fearful when it’s happening.  During our investment meeting today, we thought back to the financial crisis, when the global financial system was literally on the brink of collapse and seeing the investment team’s members fear and angst.  Even though the team represented well over 100 years of investment experience, faces looked gray and ashen due to the nonstop negative headlines and the plummeting stock prices and worry for our clients.  It’s easy at those times for even the most experienced professionals to think there is no answer and lose hope. 

But giving up hope is not a strategy.  Eventually the market bottomed, and things got better.  Measures taken by governments around the world allowed the financial system to begin healing, companies did what they do, and the stock market rallied strongly.  Business revenues and earnings started going up, and we had an 11 year economic expansion and stock market boom.  It’s happened numerous times over the last 100 years and will do so again. 

Even in the best of times, stocks are volatile assets.  As the chart below shows, every year since 1980, at some point stocks were in negative territory.  In 30 out of the 40 years though, stocks ended the year with a positive return.  Obviously, the current decline is lower than the -13% shown as of the end of February.  We think the point to keep in mind is that stock market volatility is normal and is simply part of the price investors pay for the higher return stocks provide over time.

COVID-19 will be defeated.  We don’t know how or when, but, if history is any guide, the combination of massive financial resources, and human ingenuity and innovation will solve this problem.  Businesses will re-open and we won’t have to be shut-ins anymore and we will be able to live normal lives again. This is not meant to be flippant, but this too shall pass. 

Meantime, we will help our clients, and our Glenview family, weather this tumultuous period.  These are the times when we add the most value for our clients.  It’s when we can walk side-by-side with them, and each other, to ensure that we make the wisest decisions we can to help all of us come out the other side in the strongest position possible.  Hang in there.  Turn off the news.  Take good care of yourself and each other.  And look forward to a bright future, because it will be. 

To better keep you informed, we posted a letter to our website (www.glenviewtrust.com) last Friday with comments about COVID-19 and the markets.  You can find it, as well as our other perspective pieces and company news, by clicking on the “Glenview News” tab at the top of our homepage.  And please know we are all 100% focused on helping you navigate these difficult times.  Though many of us are working remotely, we are fully functional and only a phone call away.  If we haven’t reached out yet we will shortly.  Please do not hesitate to call any one of us if you need something or just want to talk.   

As always, thank you for your trust and confidence.

The Glenview Trust Company     

    

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

We don’t know how serious and widespread this coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will ultimately be, but markets are clearly selling off on expectations of slowing economic growth or outright contraction/recession.  U.S. stocks have dropped almost 20 percent from their all-time highs reached merely three weeks ago.  Some of the most impacted industries have seen companies’ stock prices decline 50 percent or more.  Adding to the plunge is the more than 17 percent decline of oil prices resulting from a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia on top of the virus-related decline in demand. 

You have heard about curtailed travel, cancelled or postponed events, quarantines, and attempts to disinfect.  As more of these measures are put in place, global economic activity will certainly contract further. 

The fact that equity markets entered the COVID-19 scare at or near all-time highs and at full valuations exacerbated the stock market declines.  Given the high valuations, it is no surprise that a global health scare and the large decline in oil prices would cause extreme stock price swings.  And with the growth of high speed, algorithmic trading, huge price moves based on news headlines can happen almost instantly. 

Over the last 40 years, there have been numerous pandemic scares (Chart #1).   

And while they have occurred at various stages of economic growth and equity valuation levels, the market impact has been more-or-less temporary.  There have also been plenty of days during that time that saw large stock price declines (Chart #2).

Monday March 9th –interestingly, the 11th anniversary of the Great Financial Crisis market bottom– was the eighth worst day (on a percentage basis) since 1987.  Within a year of 13 of the prior 15 worst days, the S&P 500 was up 17 percent or more.  Of course, past performance is no guarantee, but it is reasonable to expect that efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 will eventually succeed, and that its impact on global economic activity will fade, similar to MERS, SARS, Ebola, and Zika.

Our most important job as investment professionals is to help our clients prepare for these inevitable periods of stock market declines.  For the last 18 months, we have written about the importance of rebalancing portfolios.  The long post-crisis bull market has given us the opportunity to do so.  It is critical to routinely assess whether your portfolios are appropriately balanced among asset classes, based on your specific goals, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.  

Sudden market drops like those we’ve seen the last few weeks are scary.  It is human nature to be frightened and emotional when so much uncertainty exists.  We feel the pain too.  Yet these are the times when your Glenview investment professionals can add the most value by helping you stick with your plans for achieving your goals and objectives, and successfully weathering these inevitable stock market shocks. 

As always, we appreciate your trust and confidence and value your relationship.  Please call if you have concerns you would like to discuss more thoroughly.
The Glenview Trust Company

THE GLENVIEW TRUST COMPANY BOARD OF DIRECTORS

THE GLENVIEW TRUST COMPANY ELECTS WILLIAM C. CARSTANJEN TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Appointment fills seat of the late David Jones, Sr.

LOUISVILLE, KY (January 22, 2020) – The Glenview Trust Company has elected William C. Carstanjen to its board of directors. He was elected unanimously by the members of the board on December 19, Carstanjen is currently CEO of Churchill Downs Inc.

Carstanjen brings professional experience from two international corporations with prominent presence in Louisville, GE and Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI). At CDI, Carstanjen has led the company’s
diversification strategy into online wagering on thoroughbred racing via TwinSpires.com and into regional casino gaming as well as helped lead the growth of the Oaks and Kentucky Derby events.

“We are pleased to welcome Bill as the newest director to The Glenview Trust Company board,” said board chair J. David Grissom. “Filling the seat left vacant by the death of David Jones, Sr. earlier this year was an important undertaking and we are fortunate to have Bill and the exceptional experience and perspective he brings to the board.”

Bill Carstanjen is the Chief Executive Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated and a member of its board of directors. Prior to becoming the CEO in 2014, Carstanjen served as the President and Chief Operating Officer for several years. Carstanjen joined Churchill Downs in 2005 as the Executive Vice President, Chief Development Officer and General Counsel. Prior to joining Churchill Downs, Carstanjen was an executive with General Electric Company. Carstanjen began his career as an attorney in New York with Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP.

Carstanjen joins the Glenview Trust board of directors that currently includes, Robert C. Ayotte, Tawana Edwards, Sandra Frazier, J. David Grissom, Ronald J. Murphy, W. Austin Musselman, Jr., Scott Neff, R. Alex Rankin and Leonard M. Spalding, Jr.

About The Glenview Trust Company
The Glenview Trust Company is a state-chartered trust and investment company whose hallmarks are local leadership, shared management and unparalleled attention to client satisfaction.

Glenview is one of the largest independent trust companies in the Commonwealth with more than 600 client relationships and $15.7 billion in client assets under administration. The Company focuses on building enduring relationships with individuals and families by providing timely and unbiased advice that helps clients reach financial goals and achieve a more enriched life.



Stephanie L. Morgan-White – Serving on the ABA Trust School Advisory Board

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Stephanie L. Morgan-White passed the Certified Trust & Financial Advisor (CTFA) Exam in October 2019.  Prior to sitting for the Exam, Stephanie completed three (3) years of ABA Trust School earning Certificates in Trust at the Advanced, Intermediate and Foundational Levels.  She is now serving on the ABA Trust School Advisory Board.  Stephanie joined The Glenview Trust Company as a Trust Professional in April 2016 following nineteen (19) years in the private practice of law and two (2) previous years with the Kentucky Court of Appeals.

August 15, 2019 – Glenview’s Market Thoughts…

Glenview’s Market Thoughts…

Wednesday morning the two-year to ten-year treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007.  An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates rise to a level higher than longer-term ones.  In this case, the two-year treasury yield is a few basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of one percent) higher than the ten-year yield.  Taking heed, major stock markets around the world were down over two percent on top of the increased volatility of the past few days. 

Historically, recessions have occurred, on average, 22 months following a two-ten inversion.  Counterintuitively, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12 percent positive return one year after a two to ten inversion, and it’s not until about 18 months after an inversion that the stock market starts to see bear market-like declines.

Why has the yield curve inverted and what does it mean?  We’ve written before about the potential negative effects of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China and several seem to be playing out.  Growth in the U.S. has slowed as has economic activity in many other parts of the globe.  Germany and France saw their economies contract last quarter and growth in China, although the numbers can be unreliable, is undoubtedly slowing too. 

Given the increasing interdependence of the global economic system, it is only natural that slowing growth among the world’s largest economies puts pressure on others.  In this slow growth/contracting economic environment, central banks and large institutional investors prefer to own bonds because of their relative price stability compared to stocks.  That in turn increases the price of bonds, lowering bond yields (aka interest rates) since bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.  When long-term interest rates decline below short-term rates (inverts) the bond market is essentially forecasting a recession.

An inverted yield curve has practical implications for the business cycle as well.  In a normal economic environment banks “lend long and borrow short,” lending at higher rates and borrowing the money to fund those loans at lower rates.  The difference between the two rates—the spread—is the bank’s profit margin.  The lower the spread is, the pickier banks become about who and what they will finance, making companies and individuals more likely to delay or cancel capital spending and other purchases.  When that slowdown reaches the point that the economy contracts a recession occurs.

No one knows if this inversion will ultimately lead us into recession or when the next bear market will begin.  Since 2017, we have been helping clients focus on whether, given the strong equity returns since 2009, they remain comfortable with their allocation between stocks and bonds.  Even after the volatile last few days, major U.S. markets are within six percent of their all-time highs.  As such we remain confident this is a prudent time to continue focusing on asset allocation and ensuring clients are comfortable with theirs.  Maintaining that comfort level helps all of us weather inevitable market declines by focusing on long-term goals and avoiding emotional, undesirable decisions.    

Thank you as always for your confidence and trust!
The Glenview Trust Company      


Peggy Krug – Alumna of the Year Award


Peggy Krug of Louisville, Ky., received the Alumna of the Year Award to honor the exceptional amount of time she has spent advancing WKU in her home community. A 1978 alumna and Lifetime Member of the WKU Alumni Association, Krug has served as Treasurer of the Greater Louisville Alumni Chapter and a member of the WKU Alumni Association Board of Directors, where she has chaired the Alumni Achievement Task Force and overseen the Hall of Distinguished Alumni selection process.

Peggy Krug 
WKU Alumna of the Year Award

2019 Market Update

As bad as the fourth quarter of 2018 was for the stock market, the first quarter of 2019 was almost as good. Since the five percent washout on Christmas Eve, the S&P 500 has risen 25 percent and, as of this writing (5-22-19), major U.S. market indexes are within a few percentage points of their all-time highs. In our 2018 review/2019 preview, we mentioned three factors that were weighing on the economy and markets: rising interest rates, slowing global growth and U.S. trade skirmishes with several countries. Some progress has been made, but many questions, as always, remain.

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KET Visions Magazine March 2019

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M A K I N G A D I F F E R A N C E

Sherry KET

THEN AND NOW
Sherry Feldpausch fondly remembers when she first discovered KET.
She was a young girl at Stan­ley Elementary in Owensboro. Her teacher, taking a break from the day’s regular activities, wheeled a television into the classroom, tuning it to KET.
Sherry and her classmates delighted in what they saw: fun, educational programs that explored science and math and opened their eyes to the wonders of Kentucky and the world around them.
“It was such a treat when we got to watch KET,” Sherry recalled. “It was the best part of the school day.” Today, she says she still gets the same joy when she tunes in to KET.
“If you want to know and hear about Kentucky—and to really know what’s going on in your state—there’s no better way to find out about it than from KET, said Sherry, a trust administrator with The Glenview Trust Company in Louisville. “There’s so much great programming that we love to watch.”
The daughter of Western Kentucky farmers, Sherry said her family’s keen interest in public service rubbed off on her at a young age.
So it’s fitting that Sherry says she’s drawn to KET’s public affairs programming, particularly Renee Shaw’s legislative and election coverage through programs such as Kentucky Tonight and Legislative Update.
“Renee gives you the local perspective for Kentucky,” Sherry says. “And she does such a great job, giving you both parties’ perspectives in a straightforward way—it’s not vitriolic at all.”
When Sunday comes around, she again looks forward to KET, where she can catch up on her favorite Masterpiece programs, such as Victoria and Poldark. Her parents and sister Peggy are likewise fans of the programs—and they’ve made a tradition of grabbing their phones and exchanging texts while they watch the dramas unfold, commenting on the various plot twists.
“We love good stories—and the Masterpiece programs are all so well done,” Sherry says. “The costuming is terrific. The dialogue is great. And the characters just draw you in.” In the past, if she missed a Masterpiece program, she would simply  wait until it aired again later in the week. But not anymore, thanks to KET Passport. With this member benefit that gives supporters expanded online access to thousands of PBS programs, she can watch programs she missed on her own schedule.
“It’s been so liberating to have KET Passport,” Sherry adds. “It’s changed the way we watch, and it’s allowed us to revisit the shows we love, such as Downton Abbey.”
Sherry said her passion for KET ultimately prompted her to take a larger role with the statewide public television station. Nearly a decade ago, she began serving on KET’s Greater Louisville Regional Fund Board, eventually becoming the board’s chair for three years and spearheading numerous fundraising events for the station, including the annual Spirits, Sparkles and Spurs event.
“I think it’s important to find things that are interesting to you and worthy of your time,” Sherry says. “I enjoy KET and knew that funding was crucial and necessary. So being a part of that and helping out in any way I could was important to me.”

KET Shae

COMMITTEE OF THE YEAR

Walt Lou. Bar 12-2018
COMMITTEE OF THE YEAR
INVESTMENT COMMITTEE
Walter C. Koczot, Chair

The Investment Committee, chaired by Walter C. Koczot of the Glenview Trust  Company, is responsible for overseeing the LBA’s investment account within guidelines  established by the Board of Directors. Because of the committee’s diligence, the LBA has solid financial reserves.
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Louisville Bar Briefs                                                                                   www.loubar.org

Tawana Edwards Honored as Outstanding Law Alumnae

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Tawana Lou. Bar. 12-2018Members on The move
The University of Louisville Law Alumni Council presented Tawana Edwards, co-CEO and chief fiduciary officer at The Glenview Trust Company, the Lawrence Grauman Award. The award honors a lifetime record of leadership and service to the
profession and community. Edwards received her J.D. at the University of Louisville Brandeis School of Law and was honored as an Outstanding Law Alumnae in 1999. Edwards has more than 35 years of experience and expertise in all aspects of fiduciary law, including personal trusts, estate planning and trust and estate administration. Today, she is the co-chief executive officer, chief fiduciary officer and a member of the board of directors of The Glenview Trust Company. She is secretary of the corporation and has served as such since its inception in 2001.

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Louisville Bar Briefs                                                                                   www.loubar.org